Corn & SoyWheatCottonLivestockSpecialty
USDA owes Harvest Fuel Relief rates this month; the $8 billion formula leans on cost and price data updating Nov. 10
USDA promised per-acre rates for Title I crops in November under its $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program. The formula draws on ERS cost-of-production forecasts and WASDE yields and prices, and both data sets are due for new numbers today.
The Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts that a corn grower spends $34.19 an acre on fuel, lube and electricity for the 2026 crop. For rice the figure is $154.64[4]. That spread is the backdrop for the per-acre payment rates USDA promised to publish this month under its $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief (HFR) program, and two of the data sets USDA said it would use to set them are scheduled for fresh numbers today[1, 4, 11].
What USDA has announced so far
USDA announced HFR on October 19 as one-time payments “to provide relief during temporary market disruptions and increased input costs”[1]. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) will run it, using Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) money under the CCC Charter Act[1]. That act lets the CCC support farm prices “through loans, purchases, payments, and other operations”[6].
The design copies Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA). USDA said HFR will pay “simple, proportional support” through a uniform formula covering part of modeled losses for the 2026 crop year[1]. The loss figure is a national average built from three inputs[1]:
- planted acres reported to FSA
- ERS cost-of-production estimates
- yields and prices from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
FSA’s program page adds the eligibility details producers will be held to. Only Title I acreage on file with FSA by October 16, 2026, counts[2]. Title I commodities are the crops covered by the commodity title of the farm bill[2]. Crop insurance is not required[1]. Producers with a Login.gov account linked to USDA will get pre-filled applications once they open[1, 2].
What is still missing is the part that sets the check: the per-acre rates, the application window and a payment limit. USDA said Title I rates “will be released in November” and that the method for other commodities would come later[1]. As of November 10, FSA’s page said eligible commodities “will be announced in the coming weeks”[2].
How FBA set its rates, and what the same math shows now
The FBA rule from February 23 spells out the method HFR is modeled on[3]. For each crop, USDA took the WASDE season-average price times the national yield, subtracted ERS’s total cost of production, and paid a fixed share of the shortfall[3]. Because $11 billion was available, that share was 30.41 percent[3]. Corn’s FBA rate worked out to $44.36 per acre; soybeans got $30.88, wheat $39.35, cotton $117.35 and rice $132.89[3]. FBA payments were capped at $155,000 per person or legal entity, and anyone with average adjusted gross income over $900,000 was ineligible[3]. USDA has not said whether HFR carries the same limits[1, 2].
Running the same inputs with the October 9 WASDE and ERS’s June 2026 forecasts gives the per-acre gaps below. This is this report’s arithmetic, not a USDA figure, and the fraction USDA would cover with $8 billion is unknown[3, 4, 5].
| Crop | Oct. WASDE yield x price | Gross return | ERS 2026F total costs | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 181.2 bu x $4.70 | $851.64 | $935.79 | -$84.15 |
| Soybeans | 53.1 bu x $12.00 | $637.20 | $683.89 | -$46.69 |
| Wheat | 48.1 bu x $6.30 | $303.03 | $419.41 | -$116.38 |
| Sorghum | 55.7 bu x $4.50 | $250.65 | $466.20 | -$215.55 |
| Cotton | 790 lb x 77.0 cents | $608.30 | $974.12 | -$365.82 |
| Rice | 7,668 lb x $15.20/cwt | $1,165.54 | $1,411.44 | -$245.90 |
Two things stand out against the FBA table. Higher 2026-27 price forecasts shrink the corn and soybean gaps compared with what FBA used: FBA priced corn at $4.00 and soybeans at $10.50, while the October WASDE has $4.70 and $12.00[3, 5]. Wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice show larger gaps per acre than corn or soybeans[5].
Why today matters for the rates
ERS lists its next cost-of-production forecast update for November 10[4]. USDA’s November Crop Production and WASDE reports are also set for 11 a.m. Central time on November 10, according to DTN[11]. Analysts in a Dow Jones survey cited by DTN expect corn yield to fall by about 0.7 bushel per acre from October’s 181.2, with estimates spread from 173.2 to 185.5 bushels[11]. USDA’s announcement does not say which edition of either data set the HFR rates will use[1].
In the field: fuel-heavy crops
Fuel is a small line for corn and soybeans and a big one for rice, peanuts and cotton. ERS’s 2026 forecasts per planted acre[4]:
- Rice: $154.64
- Peanuts: $93.18
- Cotton: $56.79
- Corn: $34.19
- Soybeans: $21.58
- Sorghum: $17.50
- Wheat: $15.62
Those forecasts date to June[4]. Louisiana growers are looking at more. Michael Deliberto, an agricultural economist at Louisiana State University, told RFD-TV that with diesel near $5.34 a gallon, rice fuel costs could go from $124 an acre to $240, and sugarcane from about $98 to $191 per total farm acre[9]. AAA put average diesel at $6.31 a gallon on October 20, according to Talk Business & Politics[7].
Sugarcane is not among the FBA crops, and HFR’s list of non-Title I commodities is still under review[2, 3]. USDA asked specialty crop growers, fishermen and their groups to send on-farm fuel data to HarvestFuel@usda.gov[1]. FSA says it prefers aggregate or industry-wide data, and that the fuel counted is fuel for crop production or reaching fishing grounds, not for processing or hauling product to market[2].
Livestock producers are not named in either USDA document[1, 2].
On the Hill and in the farm groups
The money is coming through CCC authority, not an appropriation, so Congress does not vote on it[1, 6]. Reaction split along familiar lines. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall welcomed the relief and said “higher diesel prices have squeezed farmers’ bottom lines,” while pressing for a farm bill[7]. Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, called the aid a pattern in which the president “imposes policies that harm farmers, then spends taxpayer money to offset the damage his policies create,” according to Talk Business & Politics[7].
HFR lands on top of other money. USDA’s announcement counts nearly $14 billion in ARC and PLC payments made two weeks before HFR was announced and the earlier FBA payments to more than 560,000 farmers[1]. This site covered FBA’s late-filing window for blue and red corn.
The lame-duck session is the other track. Duane Simpson of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives told RFD-TV the SNAP cost-share timing is the main sticking point, with Democrats seeking a two-year delay and Republicans offering one year[10]. He put the odds of finishing the farm bill this year at “80-20”[10]. Government funding runs out December 11[10]. The options and deadlines were laid out in earlier coverage of the farm bill’s lame-duck path.
What to watch
The first marker is today’s 11 a.m. Central WASDE and the ERS forecast update[4, 11]. Then the Title I rates, which USDA committed to this month[1]. Faith Parum, deputy chief economist at the Farm Bureau, told RFD-TV that USDA had pointed to mid-November and that pre-filled applications could get payments out by the end of the year[8]. Whether HFR carries FBA’s $155,000 limit and $900,000 income test, and which non-Title I crops make the list, USDA has not said[2, 3].