Corn & SoyWheatCottonSpecialty
USDA starts record $13.8 billion in 2025 ARC and PLC payments as October forecast puts wheat back under its reference price
Payments for the 2025 crop began moving through county offices around Oct. 8, before sequestration and payment limits. A day later, USDA's October supply report cut the 2026 wheat price forecast to $6.30, a nickel below the statutory reference price, with the Dec. 11 enrollment deadline ahead.
Thirteen point eight billion dollars. That is USDA’s estimate of gross 2025 payments under Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC), announced Oct. 7 and described by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) as “the largest annual payout by far since these key safety net programs were established in the 2014 Farm Bill”[1]. FSA set its payment run for around Oct. 8[2].
Two days after the announcement, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report moved the 2026 numbers that producers are weighing as they pick a program for next year. It lowered the 2026/27 wheat price forecast to $6.30 a bushel, 5 cents below the $6.35 statutory reference price, and cut corn to $4.70 on a larger crop[3, 4].
The details: what FSA is paying for 2025
The 2025 crop year runs under a one-time rule. Producers “will automatically receive the higher payment rate of either ARC or PLC, regardless of their program election,” FSA says[1]. Commodity Hill’s September report on 2026 enrollment laid out how that higher-of provision differs from the election farms face for 2026.
Sixteen crops triggered a PLC payment for 2025: small and large chickpeas, canola, corn, dry peas, flaxseed, grain sorghum, lentils, peanuts, rice (long grain, medium grain and japonica), safflower, seed cotton, soybeans and wheat[1]. ARC-County payments are figured on county revenue and trigger county by county[1]. Producers enrolled in ARC-Individual have to ask their county office which crops on the farm paid[1].
The $13.8 billion is not what lands in bank accounts. The figure “does not account for payment limitation reductions and the 5.7% sequestration rate required by statute,” the release says[1]. The payment limit for 2025 is $160,000, the $155,000 cap in the 2025 reconciliation law adjusted for inflation[1].
The internal notice to state and county offices, ARCPLC-126, sets the schedule. The 2025 payment run “will be conducted around Thursday, October 8, 2026,” with ARC-County, ARC-Individual and PLC payments released into the National Payment Service for county staff to certify and sign[2]. The deadline for that step is close of business Friday, Oct. 30[2].
Secretary Brooke Rollins called the payments support that “provides producers critical liquidity to cover operating costs, prepare for the next crop year and invest in their operations”[1].
Why did corn and soybeans trigger PLC for 2025?
The list includes two crops whose 2025 prices sat above their statutory reference prices. USDA’s October report estimates the 2025/26 season-average farm price at $4.16 a bushel for corn and $10.50 for soybeans[3]. The statutory reference prices are $4.10 and $10.00[4].
The answer is in the effective reference price. PLC pays when the effective price for a crop falls below its effective reference price, not the statutory figure alone[1]. Section 10301 of Pub. L. 119-21 raised the formula’s multiplier on recent market prices from 85 percent to 88 percent beginning with the 2025 crop[4]. FSA says the law brought “higher statutory reference prices and improvements to the effective reference price calculation”[1]. FSA’s release does not list the 2025 effective reference prices.
Barley and oats are not on the list. USDA estimates their 2025/26 prices at $5.46 and $3.23, against statutory reference prices of $5.45 and $2.65[3, 4].
In the field: October forecasts against the reference prices
The 2026 election is a separate decision with no higher-of safety valve, and the October report shifted several of the numbers behind it[3, 5].
| Crop | Statutory reference price | Sept. forecast, 2026/27 | Oct. forecast, 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat ($/bu) | $6.35 | $6.40 | $6.30 |
| Corn ($/bu) | $4.10 | $4.80 | $4.70 |
| Sorghum ($/bu) | $4.40 | $4.60 | $4.50 |
| Soybeans ($/bu) | $10.00 | $12.00 | $12.00 |
| Barley ($/bu) | $5.45 | $5.70 | $5.70 |
| Oats ($/bu) | $2.65 | $3.35 | $3.35 |
| Long-grain rice ($/cwt) | $16.90 | $13.50 | $14.00 |
Sources: reference prices from Pub. L. 119-21[4]; forecasts from WASDE-676[3].
Wheat. USDA raised production slightly to 1.534 billion bushels on a 48.1-bushel yield, then added a blunt line: “Despite the increase, this remains the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970”[3]. A small crop did not lift the price. Exports were cut 25 million bushels to 750 million, and hard red winter (HRW) wheat took the largest decline because it “continues to be uncompetitive in export markets with significantly higher prices than last year”[3]. Ending stocks rose 23 million bushels to 740 million, and the price fell a dime[3]. HRW ending stocks alone rose 14 million bushels to 333 million, DTN reported[6].
Corn. The yield forecast rose 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bushels an acre and production to 16.034 billion bushels, on unchanged harvested area of 88.5 million acres[3]. Beginning stocks were raised 173 million bushels after the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report, and projected ending stocks jumped 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion[3]. The trade had looked for a cut: the pre-report Dow Jones survey averaged 15.716 billion bushels, according to DTN[6]. December futures traded briefly at the 30-cent daily limit and settled 20 1/2 cents lower at $4.79 3/4[6, 7]. “The 2.7 bushel month-to-month yield increase was the real surprise there,” said Scott Stiles, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture[7]. He pointed to an 11-bushel jump in Nebraska that added almost 106 million bushels[7].
At $4.70, the corn forecast still sits 60 cents above the statutory reference price[3, 4]. Stiles noted it is also the highest season-average price since 2022[7].
Sorghum and rice. Sorghum slipped to $4.50, a dime over its reference price[3, 4]. The long-grain rice forecast rose 50 cents to $14.00 per hundredweight on observed cash and futures prices, which still leaves it $2.90 under the $16.90 reference price, the widest gap in the table[3, 4]. Rice production was trimmed to 157.7 million hundredweight on lower yields[3].
Soybeans and cotton. USDA forecast a record 53.1-bushel soybean yield and held the price at $12.00[3]. Upland cotton production rose to 13.44 million bales and the lint price slipped a cent to 77 cents a pound; WASDE has no seed cotton price, which is what PLC uses[3, 4].
Livestock. The report is not only about program crops. USDA cut its hog price forecasts for the rest of 2026 and the first half of 2027 “on persistent weakness in the pork cutout,” with fourth-quarter barrows and gilts at $55.00 per hundredweight[3]. Cattle price forecasts were unchanged, and the 2027 all-milk price forecast was raised to $20.45[3].
On the Hill: the law behind both numbers
No vote is needed for either the 2025 payments or the 2026 sign-up. The reconciliation law, Pub. L. 119-21, signed July 4, 2025, set the higher statutory reference prices from the 2025 crop year and extended PLC through the 2031 crop[4]. From the 2031 crop on, reference prices rise 0.5 percent a year, capped at 113 percent of the 2025 levels[4]. The law also added up to 30 million base acres; FSA cut each new allocation by 3.69 percent because eligible acres exceeded that cap, and the additions count from the 2026 crop year[1, 5].
Rollins framed the payout as the law at work, saying “today we are acting on it”[1]. The release does not estimate 2026 outlays.
What to watch
Corn and soybean harvest was well behind average when the October survey was taken, DTN noted, and its analyst wrote that “there are serious questions post-report about yields for both Nebraska and Iowa”[6]. “Keep in mind, the October yield estimates are not final by any stretch,” Stiles said; USDA’s final yield and production numbers come in January[7].
- Oct. 30: county offices’ deadline to certify and sign 2025 ARC and PLC payments[2].
- Nov. 2: 2027 crop year enrollment opens[5].
- Dec. 11: last day to elect and enroll for 2026; a farm that misses it keeps its 2025 election and is ineligible for 2026 payments[5].
- March 15, 2027: 2027 enrollment closes[5].
Whether wheat stays on the payment side of $6.35 depends on a marketing year that started June 1 and runs through May[3].