Farm bill heads into lame duck with milk's permanent-law shield expiring Dec. 31

Congress comes back from Tuesday’s election with two hard dates and no farm bill. Government funding runs out on December 11^[4]. On December 31, the law that keeps 1938 and 1949 price support statutes from applying to milk expires^[3]. Voters gave Democrats control of both chambers starting in January, so the outgoing Congress now has to decide whether to finish a bill or leave it to their successors^{[1, 2]}.

What actually expires, and when

The last extension of the 2018 farm bill, Section 5002 of the stopgap law signed November 12, 2025, carried most 2018 farm bill authorities until September 30, 2026. Where a later law set a later date, that date controls^[3]. That clause matters because, as DTN reported, the 2025 reconciliation law locked in baseline spending for crop insurance, SNAP and most other farm programs through 2031^{[3, 7]}. USDA told DTN that “established baseline funding will continue to operate regardless of whether the farm bill is extended,” and that the lapse “is expected to have minimal effect”^[7].

The permanent-law question is separate and runs on its own clock. Section 5002(c) says the suspended 1938 and 1949 provisions “shall not be applicable to the 2026 crops of covered commodities,” cotton and sugar. It applies the same suspension to milk “through December 31, 2026”^[3]. Section 201 of the Agricultural Act of 1949, the milk price support authority, is on the suspended list^[5]. If that suspension ends, Progressive Dairy has reported, USDA would have to support milk at parity-based levels near $50 per hundredweight^[8].

Wheat has its own exposure. The same law suspends the 1941 corn and wheat marketing-quota resolution only “for the crops of wheat planted for harvest in calendar year 2026”^{[3, 5]}. On the statute’s face, nothing yet covers wheat that will be harvested in 2027.

The September stopgap that funds the government through December 11 did not fix any of this. Its authorizing title extends the U.S. Grain Standards Act and Section 408 of the Food for Peace Act to December 11. It contains no general extension of the 2018 farm bill^[4]. DTN reached the same conclusion on October 1: the continuing resolution “does not extend the farm bill”^[7].

In the field

Dairy. Dairy Margin Coverage is not affected, because it is funded through 2031 under the 2025 reconciliation law^[8]. The Dairy Forward Pricing Program is affected. Progressive Dairy reported that handlers who sign new forward contracts on or after October 1 “will not be exempt from paying minimum federal order prices.” Contracts signed by September 30 are not affected^[8]. The December 31 milk deadline is the one the industry calls the “dairy cliff”^[7].

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Farm Service Agency (FSA) Notice CRP-1101 tells county offices that “no new offers or offers for re-enrollment may be processed or approved after September 30, 2026.” It also says a new notice will follow if Congress restores the authority^[6]. Signup 208 contracts approved with interim conservation plans still need final plans from the Natural Resources Conservation Service by December 31^[6]. Offers that were not approved by close of business September 30 cannot be approved under current law^[6].

Row crops. Crop insurance runs on baseline funding that DTN reported is secured through 2031, and USDA says baseline funding continues regardless of the lapse^[7]. The 2026 crops of covered commodities, cotton and sugar are protected from permanent law^[3]. For wheat, the quota suspension is written around wheat planted for harvest in calendar 2026^[3].

Smaller programs. Three 2018 farm bill programs with no budget baseline, the Biobased Markets Program, the Biorefinery Assistance Program and the Rural Economic Development Program, got no new money in the reconciliation law^[7].

On the Hill

The House passed H.R. 7567, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, by 224 to 200 on April 30. The Senate received it on May 19^[9]. In the Senate, the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee’s first attempt failed in August when the final vote went 10 to 11 along party lines. Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) recessed the committee instead of ending the markup^[11]. On September 16 the committee ordered favorably reported an original bill titled the “Agricultural Act of 2026”^[10]. The National Agricultural Aviation Association reported the vote as 12 to 11 along party lines, with Sen. Mitch McConnell’s support supplying the margin^[12]. On the floor the bill needs 60 votes, which the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC) argued in August makes a bipartisan deal on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) the only workable path^[11].

DTN’s ag policy editor Jake Zajkowski and farm business editor Chris Clayton discussed the outlook in a November 4 webinar. Capital Press reported that the four agriculture committee leaders have negotiated informally and have moved on every title except nutrition^[2]. Zajkowski said: “Republicans may be more willing to negotiate now than risk Democrats claiming credit for a farm bill next Congress”^[2]. Clayton said the bill could be “shoved” into an omnibus. If the SNAP provisions are settled, he said, “you can probably get a farm bill — you might be working Christmas Eve night to see if you vote on it, but it’s happened before”^[2]. Democrats may push to keep two-year SNAP provisions and to “unravel” parts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the analysts said^[2].

The election will also change who writes the next bill. Capital Press counted 12 openings on the House Agriculture Committee and seven on the Senate committee^[2]. DTN’s election-night count expected 11 House committee members to leave^[1]. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), whom NSAC identified as the Senate committee’s ranking member^[11], won Minnesota’s governor’s race. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) lost to Democrat Adam Hamilton^[1]. Clayton also questioned whether members who lost will come back to vote, and whether committee staff will be job-hunting instead of negotiating^[2].

Farm aid is a separate fight. According to Capital Press, the House has passed a $12 billion farm aid blueprint, Republicans want another $12 billion, and Democratic reluctance to back another war supplemental could make it harder to attach farm aid and year-round E15 sales^[2].

What to watch

• December 11: Government funding and the short Grain Standards Act and Food for Peace extensions expire^[4]. The next funding bill is the most likely vehicle for either a farm bill or another extension^[2].
• December 31: Milk’s protection from permanent law ends, and NRCS must deliver final conservation plans for interim Signup 208 contracts^{[3, 6]}.
• January 3: The new Congress is sworn in^[1]. Any bill not enacted by then has to start over, and the committees will have new members^{[1, 2]}.

Lawmakers have extended the 2018 law three times before^[7]. Whether they do it a fourth time, pass a full bill, or let the milk deadline pass is the main decision left for this Congress on farm policy.