USDA sets fiscal 2027 sugar allotments at 10.57 million tons; Florida's cane share runs ahead of its shrinking crop forecast

The Commodity Credit Corporation set the fiscal 2027 overall sugar marketing allotment at 10,574,850 short tons, raw value (STRV), in a notice published Oct. 1, the first day of the marketing year it governs^[1]. That is 408,850 tons more than the 10,166,000-ton figure that ran all of fiscal 2026, an increase of about 4 percent^[1].

The same notice closes the books on fiscal 2026 by moving 20,556 tons of Florida’s cane allotment to Louisiana and shifting beet allocations among processors^[1]. For beet growers in the Red River Valley and cane growers around Lake Okeechobee, it sets how much sugar each processor may sell for human consumption from Oct. 1, 2026, through Sept. 30, 2027^[1].

How USDA arrived at 10.57 million tons

The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 requires USDA to set the overall allotment quantity (OAQ) at no less than 85 percent of estimated domestic food use for the crop year^[1]. USDA took the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast of 12,441,000 STRV in food deliveries for fiscal 2027 and applied the 85 percent floor exactly^{[1, 2]}.

By law, 54.35 percent of the OAQ goes to beet processors and 45.65 percent to the cane states and their processors^[1]. That works out to 5,747,431 tons for beet sugar and 4,827,419 tons for cane^[1].

Two adjustments shape the cane side. The statute tells USDA to hold 325,000 STRV of the cane allotment for “offshore States.” The notice says Puerto Rico and Hawaii “have permanently exited sugarcane production,” so that tonnage goes to the mainland^[1]. And because USDA forecasts no Texas cane crop for crop year 2026, the Texas share is split among the other mainland states. Rio Grande Valley’s processor allocation is zero^[1].

The initial fiscal 2027 allocations by processor:

• Beet: American Crystal Sugar Co., 2,113,806 tons; Amalgamated Sugar Co., 1,230,569; Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Co-op, 775,720; Michigan Sugar Co., 593,569; Western Sugar Co., 586,490; Minn-Dak Farmers Co-op, 399,153; Wyoming Sugar Company, 48,124^[1].
• Florida cane (2,721,800 total): Florida Crystals, 1,120,637; U.S. Sugar Corp., 1,111,552; Growers Co-op. of Florida, 489,612^[1].
• Louisiana cane (2,105,619 total): Sugar Growers and Refiners, 1,461,789; M.A. Patout & Sons, 643,830^[1].

The fiscal 2026 cleanup

Before setting next year, USDA looked at whether each state and processor could market its full fiscal 2026 allocation^[1]. Florida had already been cut once, from an initial 2,616,569 tons to 2,301,104 in a Feb. 11 revision, while Louisiana rose from 2,024,210 to 2,339,675^[1]. The Oct. 1 notice takes another 20,556 tons from Florida and gives them to Louisiana, ending the year at 2,280,548 tons for Florida and 2,360,231 for Louisiana^[1].

Within Florida, Florida Crystals and U.S. Sugar Corp. each lost about 20,000 to 26,000 tons and the Growers Co-op. of Florida gained 25,835^[1]. On the beet side, Western Sugar Co. picked up 52,917 tons and Amalgamated 22,090, while American Crystal gave up 44,870, Southern Minnesota 24,263 and Minn-Dak 12,756^[1]. Total beet and cane tonnage was unchanged^[1].

In the field: allotments versus the crop in the ground

The allotment is a ceiling on sales, and this year’s September projections put domestic production well under it. WASDE projects fiscal 2027 output at 8.839 million STRV, against the 10.57 million-ton OAQ^{[1, 2]}.

Florida cane. WASDE puts Florida production at 1.819 million STRV, down from 1.893 million in August, and says the Florida forecast has fallen 9.8 percent since July^[2]. Two processors that had not changed their numbers in August lowered them in September, “likely as a consequence of the effects of the mealy bug infestation,” according to the report^[2]. Florida’s new allotment is 2,721,800 tons^[1].

The pasture mealybug was first found in Florida grass fields in the spring, after earlier detections in Texas and Louisiana, and by early July had been confirmed in 15 counties, including Palm Beach, Hendry and Glades, WUSF reported^[7]. Isaac Esquivel, a University of Florida extension specialist, told the station that the greatest damage had been on limpograss pastures and sugarcane. “There’s not natural predators for them, so they kind of just take off,” he said^[7]. He pointed to the length of the cane crop as the reason the pest could hit sugar especially hard^[7].

Louisiana cane. WASDE projects 2.252 million STRV, down 13,852 tons from August, which is above the state’s 2,105,619-ton allotment^{[1, 2]}. The report says the industry “is actively working to mitigate” the mealybug’s effect and cannot forecast it until harvest is well underway^[2].

Beet. NASS forecasts the national sugarbeet crop at 31.763 million tons on 1.009 million harvested acres, with a yield of 31.47 tons per acre^[2]. WASDE turns that into 4.769 million STRV of beet sugar, down 22,354 tons from August, against a 5,747,431-ton beet allotment^{[1, 2]}.

Supply and stocks. WASDE cut fiscal 2027 imports by 186,004 tons, mostly on smaller projected shipments from Mexico under the suspension agreements, and projects an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent, down from 16.2 percent estimated for fiscal 2026^[2]. Total supply is projected at 14.268 million STRV against use of 12.571 million^[2].

Import quota: who ships raw cane sugar this year

The Foreign Agricultural Service set the fiscal 2027 raw cane sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) at 1,117,195 metric tons raw value (MTRV) on July 14, the minimum the United States owes under its World Trade Organization commitments^[5]. The refined sugar TRQ is 22,000 MTRV, including 1,656 MTRV reserved for specialty sugar, which opens first come, first served on Oct. 1^[5].

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) allocated 1,061,202 MTRV of the raw cane quota by country on July 24. The largest shares went to the Dominican Republic at 189,343 MTRV, the Philippines at 145,235 and Brazil at 100,000^[4]. On Sept. 23, USTR handed out the remaining 55,993 MTRV, led by the Dominican Republic with 11,931 more and the Philippines with 9,151^[3]. In-quota raw cane sugar may enter as of Oct. 1, 2026^[3].

On the Hill: the law behind the numbers

The 2025 reconciliation law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, extended the sugar program from crop year 2025 through 2031 and raised the loan rates for raw cane and refined beet sugar. USDA wrote those changes into 7 CFR part 1435 in a July 9 final rule^[6], which this site covered at the time. The same rule set minimum storage rates for forfeited sugar, from the 2025 crop on, at 34 cents per hundredweight per month for refined and 27 cents for raw cane^[6].

Two of its changes bear directly on allotments. When the OAQ goes up, beet processors with sugar available now get priority in reassignment. And the first reassignment of the year must be published no later than 30 days after January’s WASDE^[6]. The rule also extends the Feedstock Flexibility Program, which lets USDA dispose of surplus sugar, through crop year 2026, as authorized by Pub. L. 119-37^[6].

The Oct. 1 notice took effect on publication, with no comment period^[1].

What to watch

• Harvest reports from Florida and Louisiana. WASDE-reported processor forecasts will show whether the mealybug cuts deeper as cane is ground^[2].
• January 2027 WASDE. The first fiscal 2027 reassignment is due within 30 days of it^[6].
• Mid-year changes. The notice says USDA “may make program adjustments during FY 2027 if needed”^[1]. Whether Florida’s 2,721,800 tons hold, or follow fiscal 2026’s pattern of cuts in favor of Louisiana, is not settled by anything in the record so far.