Commerce holds 20.04% subsidy finding on Moroccan phosphate while emergency duty pause runs; ITC hearing set for April 1

The Commerce Department ruled this week that lifting the countervailing duty order on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer would likely bring back subsidies of 20.04%^[1]. Yet a presidential emergency declared in June still lets importers ask to bring the same fertilizer in free of the duty^{[2, 3]}. For corn, soybean and wheat growers buying phosphate for fall application and next spring, the order and the price they pay now run on separate tracks.

The final results of the sunset review, published Nov. 3, cover fertilizer from OCP S.A., Morocco’s producer, and set the same 20.04% rate for all other Moroccan exporters^[1]. Commerce’s finding is one half of the five-year review of the 2021 order. The other half belongs to the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), which has scheduled a full review with a hearing on April 1, 2027^[4].

The details: what Commerce decided

Commerce found that revocation “would likely to lead to the continuation or recurrence of a countervailable subsidy” at 20.04% ad valorem, the same rate it reached in its July 24 preliminary results^{[1, 5]}. The order dates to April 7, 2021^[1]. Commerce began this first five-year review on March 2, 2026, and ran a full review rather than an expedited one because the Moroccan government and OCP filed adequate responses^[1].

The record shows the two sides. The Moroccan government and OCP filed case briefs on Aug. 24, and the Mosaic Company and J.R. Simplot Company, the two U.S. producers taking part, filed rebuttals on Aug. 31^[1]. Commerce’s list of issues shows what Morocco and OCP argued:

• whether subsidy programs found countervailable earlier have changed enough to affect the rate;
• whether Commerce was wrong to find that government loan guarantees are likely to continue;
• whether Commerce should have relied on a rate set using adverse facts available for OCP’s payroll tax refund;
• whether court decisions were handled correctly, and whether the net rate likely to prevail was calculated properly^[1].

Commerce kept its preliminary number^{[1, 5]}.

The rate is a forecast of what subsidies would look like without the order. It differs from the duty Customs has collected. In Commerce’s review of 2022 entries, OCP’s rate came to 16.60% after a ministerial-error correction^[8]. For the order’s first period, Nov. 30, 2020, through Dec. 31, 2021, a Court of International Trade remand cut OCP’s rate to 2.11%, and Commerce said in January that a later review’s cash-deposit rate superseded it^[7]. On Oct. 28 Commerce rescinded its review of 2025 entries after every request was withdrawn, so those entries will be assessed at the cash-deposit rate in effect when they came in^[9].

The Russian order is on the same timeline. Commerce finished an expedited sunset review on June 30, with likely rates of 24.11% for EuroChem, 14.64% for JSC Apatit and 16.64% for all others, after no Russian party responded^[6].

How does the emergency duty suspension work?

On June 29 the President declared an emergency under Section 318 of the Tariff Act of 1930 over the supply of fertilizer^[2]. The proclamation said “the United States’ largest foreign source of phosphate fertilizer has experienced supply chain disruption,” and that U.S. production “is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports”^[2]. It authorizes Commerce and Treasury to allow Moroccan phosphate in free of countervailing duties and cash deposits until eight months after the proclamation or the end of the emergency, whichever comes first^[2].

Commerce put that into practice on July 8^[3]. The window is not automatic:

1. An exporter or importer files a written request with Commerce through its ACCESS filing system, on the record of the 2026 administrative review segment of case C-714-001^[3].
2. If Commerce approves, it tells the filer, instructs U.S. Customs and Border Protection to admit the shipment without countervailing duties and posts the decision on ACCESS^[3].
3. The shipment must normally enter within 60 days of Commerce’s notice, or it becomes subject to the duty^[3].

The suspension waives collection on approved shipments; the order itself stays on the books, and the sunset review went ahead alongside it^{[1, 3]}.

In the field: timing for phosphate buyers

The emergency was built around fall and winter application. The proclamation says “farmers will apply more than half of annually consumed phosphate fertilizers between the fall and very early spring prior to next spring’s planting,” and names producers of corn, soybeans and wheat^[2].

For a dealer or co-op sourcing Moroccan product, the practical questions are the paperwork and the 60-day entry clock on each approved request^[3]. For growers, the duty-free window covers this application season. By this report’s count, the eight-month limit runs out before the 2027 fall season, so that season is covered only if the emergency is extended or a new action is taken^[2]. The proclamation directs Commerce and Treasury to keep the emergency under review and tell the President if more action is needed^[2].

Farm groups have pushed for the order to end, not just be paused. In a March 20 letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, more than 60 organizations, including the American Soybean Association, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and the National Association of Wheat Growers, said: “Maintaining the phosphate fertilizer CVDs will allow a small set of powerful corporations to continue to limit supply options for farmers”^[10]. The letter added that “Eliminating these duties would help restore balance to fertilizer markets by providing immediate relief to growers facing elevated input costs and a lack of availability”^[10]. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a March 22 social media post that the administration was “keeping every option on the table to keep supplies stable and costs under control,” Farms.com reported^[10].

In June, NCGA President Jed Bower said corn farmers would take a full part in the ITC review and argue that keeping the duties would hurt growers and the wider economy, Hespress reported^[11].

The other view comes from Mosaic and Simplot, which took part in the review as domestic producers and filed rebuttal briefs answering Morocco and OCP^{[1, 5]}, and from the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a trade group. According to Fertilizer Daily, the coalition urged the administration in August to let the duty-free window close on schedule. It argued that permanent relief would rebuild U.S. dependence on OCP, and that global sulfur supply, not the duties, has been the main limit on phosphate prices^[12].

On the Hill and at the ITC: who decides next

The ITC’s question is whether revoking the order would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury to the U.S. industry within a reasonably foreseeable time^[4]. The ITC voted in June to run full reviews of both orders, then set its schedule on Oct. 6^{[4, 11]}. It called the reviews “extraordinarily complicated” and gave itself up to 90 extra days^[4].

The ITC schedule:

• Entries of appearance and protective-order applications: within 45 days of the Oct. 9 notice^[4]
• Prehearing staff report: March 15, 2027^[4]
• Prehearing briefs: March 24, 2027^[4]
• Requests to appear at the hearing: March 25, 2027^[4]
• Hearing: April 1, 2027, 9:30 a.m.^[4]
• Posthearing briefs and nonparty written statements: April 8, 2027^[4]
• Final comments: April 29, 2027^[4]

A farm group or grower that is not a party can still file a written statement by April 8, 2027, or ask to make a short statement at the hearing^[4]. The ITC notice says industrial users of the product, and consumer groups where it is sold at retail, may take part as parties^[4].

What to watch

The emergency’s eight-month limit and the ITC schedule do not line up. By this report’s count, the duty-free window closes before the April 1 hearing, and the commission’s final comment deadline is April 29, 2027^{[2, 4]}. The ITC notice does not set a vote date^[4]. If the emergency lapses before the ITC rules, Moroccan entries would again owe cash deposits under an order whose future is still open. That outcome depends on whether the administration extends the emergency, which the proclamation allows Commerce and Treasury to recommend^[2].